SDGs Center ITB: Will the COVID-19 Pandemic become Endemic in Indonesia?
BANDUNG, itb.ac.id— The SDGs Center ITB hosted a webinar titled "Potential for COVID-19 to Become Endemic, and its Impact on Achieving SDGs" on Thursday, July 22, 2021. Several presenters spoke at the event, including Dr. Azzania Fibriani, Virologist at SITH ITB; Dr. Windhu Purnomo, dr., MS., Special Lecturer at the Department of Epidemology Universitas Airlangga; Dr. Vivi Yulaswati, M.Sc., Head of the National Secretariat of TPB/SDGs Indonesia; and Ir. Teti Armiati Argo, MES., Ph.D. as the responder.
One of the presenters in this session was Windhu Purnomo. The title of the presentation was "COVID-19 Epidemiology, Endemic Potential, and SDG Achievement in Indonesia." The terms pandemic and endemic have quite different meanings. In epidemiology, an infection is considered to be endemic in a population when it is kept at baseline levels in a geographic area without external intervention. Chickenpox, for example, is endemic to the United Kingdom. A pandemic, on the other hand, is an epidemic of a disease that spreads over a broad area, such as several continents or throughout the world.
The Development of COVID-19 in Indonesia
The second wave of COVID-19 cases has arrived in Indonesia. If the number of vaccine doses reached 416,531,440, Indonesia would have achieved herd immunity. However, it has only reached 6.09 percent of the population, or 7.90 percent of the population, in order to achieve herd immunity. It must reach 2.24 million doses per day or 67 million doses each month till December 31, 2021 (the remaining 160 days). Based on these findings, we are still a long way from obtaining herd immunity if we rely on imported vaccines.
The COVID-19 Outbreak Management Principles
There are some guidelines that must be followed when dealing with an outbreak. The initial step is to locate infected cases through testing. Isolation and therapy must then be carried out. When the level of vaccination and testing in Indonesia is still low, regional/individual quarantine plays an important role in preventing the spread of disease. Due to serious mobility limitations, 70-80% of the population is required to remain at home at any one time. The spread rate may decrease, if accomplished.
Endemic Potential
Because this is the virus's natural trait, it is impossible to stop it from spreading. Other external elements, such as vaccination administration and human interactions, may, however, be regulated.
Policies and community assistance play an important role in suppressing cases of COVID-19 infection. Increased vaccination and testing rates in Indonesia might result in a considerable drop in the number of illnesses, allowing the pandemic to become endemic. However, it is hoped that the efforts undertaken would be able to totally eradicate COVID-19 in Indonesia, rather than merely being in an endemic state.
Reporter: Tarisa Putri (Chemical Engineering, 2019)
Translator: Sekar Dianwidi Bisowarno (Bioengineering, 2019)
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